## Trip Rates: Averages and Analysis of Variance

This is second in the R in Transportation Modeling Series of posts.

I've been going between R, R Graphics Cookbook, NCHRP Report 716, and several other tasks, and finally got a chance to get back on actually performing the trip generation rates in the model.

# The Process

NCHRP Report 716 lays out a process that looks something like this when you make a graphic out of it:

So, the first part is to summarize the trips by persons, workers, income, and vehicles. I'm going to skip income (I don't care for using that as a variable).

This can be done pretty easily in R with a little bit of subsetting and ddply summaries that I've written about before. I split this into three groups based on area type, area type 1 is rural, 2 is suburban, and I combined 3 and 4 - urban and CBD.

hh.1<-subset(hhs,AreaType==1)
hh.1.sumper<-ddply(hh.1,.(HHSize6),summarise,T.HBW=sum(HBW),T.HH=length(HHSize6),TR=T.HBW/T.HH)
hh.1.sumwrk<-ddply(hh.1,.(Workers4),summarise,T.HBW=sum(HBW),T.HH=length(Workers4),TR=T.HBW/T.HH)
hh.1.sumaut<-ddply(hh.1,.(HHVeh4),summarise,T.HBW=sum(HBW),T.HH=length(HHVeh4),TR=T.HBW/T.HH)

This makes three tables that looks like this:

>hh.1.sumper

HHSize6 T.HBW T.HH TR

1 1 9 54 0.1666667

2 2 77 98 0.7857143

3 3 24 38 0.6315789

4 4 36 40 0.9000000

5 5 18 10 1.8000000

6 6 4 6 0.6666667

Once all of this is performed (and it isn't much, as the code is very similar among three of the four lines above), you can analyze the variance:

#Perform analysis of variance, or ANOVA

> hh.1.perfit<-aov(TR~HHSize6,data=hh.1.sumper)
> hh.1.wrkfit<-aov(TR~Workers4,data=hh.1.sumwrk)
> hh.1.autfit<-aov(TR~HHVeh4,data=hh.1.sumaut)
#Print summaries
>summary(hh.1.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 0.4824 0.4824 1.987 0.231

Residuals 4 0.9712 0.2428

```
```> summary(hh.1.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 0.1113 0.1113 0.184 0.697

Residuals 3 1.8146 0.6049

`> summary(hh.1.autfit)`

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 0.0994 0.09938 0.536 0.54

Residuals 2 0.3705 0.18526

The items above indicate that none of the three items above (persons per household, workers per household, or autos per household) are very significant predictors of home based work trips per household. Admittedly, I was a bit concerned here, but I pressed on to do the same for suburban and urban/CBD households and got something a little less concerning.

Suburban households

> summary(hh.2.autfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 0.6666 0.6666 23.05 0.0172 *

Residuals 3 0.0868 0.0289

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.2.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 1.8951 1.8951 11.54 0.0425 *

Residuals 3 0.4926 0.1642

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.2.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 0.6530 0.6530 10.31 0.0326 *

Residuals 4 0.2534 0.0634

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Urban and CBD Households

> summary(hh.34.autfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 1.8904 1.8904 32.8 0.0106 *

Residuals 3 0.1729 0.0576

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.34.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 5.518 5.518 680 0.000124 ***

Residuals 3 0.024 0.008

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.34.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 0.7271 0.7271 9.644 0.036 *

Residuals 4 0.3016 0.0754

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

# Another Way

Another way to do this is to do the ANOVA without summarizing the data. The results may not be the same or even support the same conclusion.

Rural

> summary(hh.1a.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 15.3 15.310 10.61 0.00128 **

Residuals 244 352.0 1.442

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.1a.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 60.46 60.46 48.08 3.64e-11 ***

Residuals 244 306.81 1.26

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.1a.autfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 4.6 4.623 3.111 0.079 .

Residuals 244 362.6 1.486

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Suburban

> hh.2a.perfit<-aov(HBW~HHSize6,data=hh.2)
> hh.2a.wrkfit<-aov(HBW~Workers4,data=hh.2)
> hh.2a.autfit<-aov(HBW~HHVeh4,data=hh.2)
> summary(hh.2a.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 136.1 136.05 101.9 <2e-16 ***
Residuals 1160 1548.1 1.33
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
> summary(hh.2a.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 376.8 376.8 334.4 <2e-16 ***
Residuals 1160 1307.3 1.1
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
> summary(hh.2a.autfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 103.2 103.20 75.72 <2e-16 ***
Residuals 1160 1580.9 1.36
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Urban/CBD

> hh.34a.perfit<-aov(HBW~HHSize6,data=hh.34)
> hh.34a.wrkfit<-aov(HBW~Workers4,data=hh.34)
> hh.34a.autfit<-aov(HBW~HHVeh4,data=hh.34)
> summary(hh.34a.perfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHSize6 1 77.1 77.07 64.38 4.93e-15 ***

Residuals 639 765.0 1.20

---

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

> summary(hh.34a.wrkfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Workers4 1 222.0 221.96 228.7 <2e-16 ***
Residuals 639 620.1 0.97
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
> summary(hh.34a.autfit)

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

HHVeh4 1 91.1 91.12 77.53 <2e-16 ***
Residuals 639 751.0 1.18
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

What this illustrates is that there is a difference between averages and raw numbers.

The next part of this will be to test a few different models to determine the actual trip rates to use, which will be the subject of the next blog post.

Tags: four step model, R, statistics, tdm, trip generation, trip-based-modeling

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